Three blue states Pennsylvania, Michigan, and Wisconsin have become important for both candidates.
In U.S. electoral politics, Democrat-controlled states are known as ‘blue’ and Republican-controlled states are known as ‘red’. Because these states vote for the same party year after year, presidential candidates often do not feel the need to campaign in those states. All their attention is on the mixed color states, not blue or red. The key to Donald Trump’s unexpected victory in 2016 was the fall of Hillary Clinton’s ‘blue wall’. He received more than 3 million votes, but lost to Pennsylvania, Michigan and Wisconsin তিন just three thousand votes in these three blue states. The Democrats were so sure of their victory in these three states known as the ‘Blue Defense Strategy’ that Hillary saw no need for an election campaign here.
In the 2020 election, the three states have become equally important for Republican candidate Donald Trump and his Democratic rival Joe Biden. In order to win, both of them will have to get a total of 48 electoral college votes from these three states. Losing one or two of these will open the way to victory, but it will require the same or more electoral votes from other states outside party control. Biden is in a more comfortable position in this regard. As a result of demographic change, red states such as Georgia, Arizona, Nevada, Iowa, or Texas are gradually changing color, and with the arrival of large numbers of black citizens, they are no longer a reliable red state. As a result, if Hillary’s blue wall is cracked, Biden’s path to winning 260 electoral votes in a different way is open. There is no alternative to Trump.
Although Biden is ahead by 8-10 points in the national polls, all his attention at the moment is on Hillary’s “blue wall”. Wisconsin (6 points) and Michigan (6 points) Biden are ahead by a significant margin. The rest is Pennsylvania, where he is currently 5-6 points ahead. But this gap is not as strong as in Michigan or Wisconsin. By taking a stand against oil and gas and by opposing fracking (a method of extracting oil and gas), he may lose the support of some voters in this state. He has repeatedly returned from that danger, sending former President Obama to advocate on his behalf. There is a good reason for Democrats to be concerned about these three states. In 2016, Hillary was ahead of these three states by an average of five points, but lost by less than one point.
Biden was born in Stronton, Pennsylvania, and loves to make his mark in the state. He also has friendships with workers’ unions in the state. He thinks of himself as one of the working class with the example of a low-income father. Winning in this state is a personal challenge for him.
Trump is also hoping that he will repeat the success of 2016, which will start from Pennsylvania. His slogan ‘America First’ is very popular among the less educated whites in this rural state. His economic program is also very popular in this oil-gas-industrial dependent state. Even if he lags behind in the polls, it will not be a surprise if he manages to capture the state in the final vote. But if he sits down here, it will be difficult for him to get up. Most analysts believe that it would be difficult to get 270 electoral college votes without any of the occupations known as Clinton’s Blue Wall.
Another headache for Trump is Florida. He got this state in 2016. If he does not win this big state again, it will not only be difficult but also practically impossible to get the required electoral votes.
Another problem for Trump is with funding. At one time his fund raised more than a billion dollars, but now he does not have enough money in his fund due to uncontrolled spending. He is suffering so much financially that he has been forced to reduce television advertising in states that are important to him. One of these states is Florida. Biden, on the other hand, has twice as much money in his pocket as Trump, so he has increased funding for TV commercials in Florida. Former New York Mayor Michael Bloomberg is helping him here. He has promised to spend 100 million in this state alone.
However, the Trump camp is stronger than Biden in terms of organization on the ground. Because of Kovid, the Biden camp is mainly focusing on online campaigns. Trump, on the other hand, has been going from house to house for the first time, swearing at voters. The Trump camp is also ahead in terms of new voter registration. Republicans hope they will be ahead in the physical vote, even if they are behind in the postal vote.
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